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Gas forecast to 2030-2040

Gas forecast to 2030-2040

According to the forecasts, by 2035 gas will become the second most important fuel of the global energy mix

A wide range of industry organizations are predicting that global demand for natural gas will grow faster than for any other fossil fuel from now through 2030. Compared with other energy sources where expectations can diverge significantly, there is remarkably strong consensus among forecasters about the trajectory of gas demand growth: major forecasts all expect growth between 1.6% and 2.2% per year.

These forecasts also project that gas will overtake coal as the second “core pillar” of the global energy mix by 2035. The majority of forecasters expect gas to grow from 22% to over 24% of global energy consumption by 2035, while coal consumption is projected to decline from 29% to between 22% and 25%.

Key global gas consumption growth forecasts

previsioni crescita consumo gas

Non-OECD countries, especially in Asia, are expected to account for the greatest share of the demand growth: the demand for gas will grow by 2.6% per year among these countries, compared with 0.9% for OECD countries. As a result, non-OECD markets would account for over 62% of global gas consumption by 2040, as against 53% today.

Underpinning these projections are a number of the specific attributes of gas, including environmental benefits that gas can play, its diverse uses, and its supply availability and diversity.

Annual vs forecast gas consumption growth rate (%)

 
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updated
02 October 2017 - 11:24 CEST