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Scenario analysis

Scenario analysis

In the DDS 2019 Snam and Terna have provided a vision of foreseeable developments of the Italian energy system.

 

With a consistent picture of future energy needs and sources to meet demand, it is possible to elaborate development plans of infrastructures that better suit future needs of the national and European system, both in gas transport and electricity transmission.

 

In the Scenario Description Document (DDS 2019) issued in September 2019, Snam and Terna have provided a consistent vision of foreseeable developments of the Italian energy system to 2030 and to 2040. The work done has allowed to pool the specific skills of the two operators, in the full awareness that the interaction between scenarios in the electricity and gas sectors constitutes a new and markedly complex element at national and EU level but necessary to sustainably achieve the decarbonisation objectives of the entire energy system by 2050.

 

Scenario analysis

This forecasting and analysis exercise is in line with the indications of the Italian Regulator, ARERA, and in line with the European process which requires that ENTSO-E and ENTSOG, the European associations of the Transmission System Operators (TSO) of electricity and gas, jointly build energy scenarios for the Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNSP).

 

Scenario analysis

The 2019 SDD proposes three different, contrasting scenarios on a 2040 temporal horizon: first, a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, which inertially projects the evolution of current trends, where technological developments are based on economic merit alone; then, two development scenarios: Centralized (CEN) and Decentralized (DEC). Both of these reach 2030 targets for decarbonisation, RES, energy efficiency and non-binding recommendations for CO2 emissions containment by using a long-term approach of minimisation of costs for decarbonisation and alternative technological developments.

Besides the BAU, CEN and DEC, there is also a scenario to 2030 based entirely on the Italian NECP (Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan in its preliminary version issued by the Italian Government in implementation of Regulation EU 2018/1999 in its preliminary version sent to Brussels at the end of 2018) which was adopted as the Italian policy scenario for 2030 and taken as a benchmark for the minimum energy efficiency, renewables sources and GHG emissions reduction targets to be achieved.

 

Target

Decarbonisation

Reduction of CO2 emissions vs. 1990 (%)

Targets

 

Energy efficiency

Final energy consumptions (Mtep: energy amount released by burning 1,000 tonnes of crude oil)

Targets

 

Share of Renewable Energy Sources

RES share on gross final energy consumption (%)

Targets

Business-As-Usual
 

• Target not achieved.

• Bottom-up approach.

• Economic phase-out of coal generation plants.

• Technology switching merely based on Total Cost of Ownership (TCO), i.e. on economic merit order, with technology-driven methods (e.g. a move from traditional to condensation heaters would only occur if technology should become cheaper).

• Minimal incentive measures in energy efficiency.

• Renewables growth based on Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCoE).

• Minimal investments in electrochemical storage systems.

 

Centralized
 

• Achieves the 2030 targets expected in the Clean Energy for all Europeans Package and long-term indications.

• Top-down approach.

• High growth in renewable/low carbon dispatchable and centralised technologies.

• Significant spread of gas heat pumps and condensing boilers in residential heating.

• Fast expansion of Compressed Natural Gas and Liquefied Natural Gas vehicles.

• Fast diffusion of biomethane and other green/decarbonised gas in order to the benefit of the transport, industry and residential sectors.

 

Decentralized
 

• Achieves the 2030 targets expected in the Clean Energy for all Europeans Package and long-term indications.

• Top-down approach.

• High growth in non-dispatchable Renewable Energy Sources, mainly in photovoltaics paired with small-scale electrochemical storage systems.

• High electrification in final consumptions, with fast penetration of electric heat pumps and electric vehicles.

• Spread of biomethane and green/decarbonised gases to decarbonise the transport, industry and residential sectors.

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updated
01 July 2020 - 10:09 CEST